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Week 13 brings the biggest betting edge of the season (MIN @ SEA, +28.4%), three Thursday games, and a Rams team ready to destroy Carolina. Plus: 7 consensus picks and why the models love underdogs this week.
Breaking down how our ensemble model went 10-4, XGBoost surged to 85.7%, and every single consensus pick hit. Plus: the four upsets that kept things interesting.
Week 12 brings the biggest value opportunity of the season (NE @ CIN), five true toss-ups including Thursday's BUF @ HOU, and Seattle traveling to Tennessee as 87.9% favorites—the most confident pick we've made all year.
Week 10 features three brazen road favorites above 75% confidence, a Thursday night trap game, and DET @ WAS—the most confident pick of the week that somehow carries the worst betting value.
Denver (7-2) is an 85.5% favorite at home against Las Vegas (2-6), but the models project only a 5.7-point win. Is DEN -9.0 too much?
The models face-planted on game prediction (50% accuracy) and barely stayed above .500 on spreads (57.1% ATS). Also: Chicago and Cincinnati decided gravity was optional.
Week 9 trims the chaos: 5 games have complete model agreement, while IND@PIT and KC@BUF headline as coin-flip shootouts with market edges hiding in plain sight.
Baltimore travels to Miami in a battle of 1-4 disappointments. The models are fighting again, Vegas sees a blowout, and our predictions suggest massive betting value—or a trap.
The models promised consensus. Week 8 delivered carnage. Five high-confidence predictions failed, XGBoost emerged as the lone survivor, and the season's most divisive game taught us a brutal lesson about overconfidence.
The Bears-Ravens matchup is the most divisive game of the 2025 season. Why do prediction models disagree so dramatically, and what does it teach us about football analytics?
Week 8 brings unprecedented model agreement with 10 consensus picks—and one game that has the models fighting harder than any matchup this season.
Week 7 delivered a masterclass in the power of consensus—and a humbling reminder that even 87% confidence can't predict Thursday Night Football chaos.
Exploring how our NFL prediction model understands each team through the lens of predicted vs actual performance. Some teams are exactly who the model thought they were. Others? Complete surprises.
A deep dive into Week 7 NFL predictions, analyzing where five different prediction models agree—and where they wildly disagree.