Falcons at Packers: Green Bay Is the Pick. The Edge Depends on Confidence
All three models favor Green Bay, but Wednesday's -250 price sits between the raw and final probabilities. Penix returns as Week 3 tests the confidence adjustment.
CRESENCIO's
WEBSITE
>> Building things on the internet
>> Coding, creating, sharing
Socials section
-
-
NFL Week 3: Bayesian Is Back. The Confidence Test Continues
Three models contribute again, six favorites exceed 90%, and three ensemble picks follow a single model. The complete September 22 Week 3 forecast.
-
NFL Week 2: Eleven Picks Above 90%. Five Winners
The original Week 2 ensemble went 8–8. Its eleven 90%-plus favorites went 5–6, and sharpening again made the probability scores worse.
About Cresencio
"Every man has his own world."
He dwells in the midst of his little universe as the lord and ruler of the constituent parts of himself. Sometimes he is a wise king, devoting his life to the needs of his subjects, but more often he is a tyrant, imposing many forms of injustice upon his vassals.
WHO_IS
CRESENCIO?
I do stuff on the internet. I like coding and building things that I can share with others.