NFL Week 8 2025: The Consensus Week

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not betting advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to wager on sporting events. Always gamble responsibly.

The Calm Before the Storm

Something unusual is happening in Week 8.

After Week 7 taught us about upsets, chaos, and the humbling nature of Thursday Night Football, our five prediction models have come together with remarkable unity. Ten of 13 games have complete consensus—all five models agreeing on the same winner.

For context, Week 7 only had five consensus games. This week nearly doubles that.

But don’t mistake consensus for certainty. Because hidden in this week’s slate is the single most divisive game of the entire 2025 season: a matchup where the models don’t just disagree—they’re in an all-out brawl.

The Slam Dunk: TEN @ IND

Before we dive into controversy, let’s talk about the week’s closest thing to a guaranteed win:

Tennessee @ Indianapolis: Colts 92.1%

This is the most confident prediction across all of Week 8. Even the typically cautious Bayesian model gives the Colts 71%. The aggressive Logistic Regression model? A stunning 97.2% confidence.

The Colts are predicted to win 26-14 at home, covering a projected 12-point margin. When four fundamentally different modeling approaches all scream the same answer with this much conviction, it’s the week’s safest pick.

The Consensus Ten: When Unity Means Certainty

Here are all ten games where every model agrees, sorted by ensemble confidence:

The Elite Tier (75%+ Confidence)

1. TEN @ IND: Colts 92.1% — The slam dunk
2. WAS @ KC: Chiefs 82.9% — Kansas City’s home fortress
3. NYG @ PHI: Eagles 81.9% — Giants face uphill battle in Philly
4. CLE @ NE: Patriots 80.3% — New England dominates at home
5. SF @ HOU: Texans 75.8% — Houston gets a chance for redemption

The Solid Favorites (58-75% Confidence)

6. TB @ NO: Buccaneers 69.3% — Tampa Bay in the Superdome
7. MIA @ ATL: Falcons 68.5% — Atlanta’s home advantage
8. DAL @ DEN: Broncos 64.8% — Dallas travels to Mile High
9. GB @ PIT: Steelers 61.7% — Pittsburgh defends home turf
10. BUF @ CAR: Bills 58.8% — Buffalo’s edge on the road

The Pattern: Eight of ten consensus picks are home teams. Road favorites are rare, and when every model agrees, home field advantage is usually the deciding factor.

The Chaos Games: When Models Collide

Now we arrive at the three games where the models can’t find common ground.

3. MIN @ LAC: The Thursday Night Puzzle

Prediction Spread: 15.9%

This Thursday night matchup has the models mildly divided:

• ELO: Vikings 51.0% (barely)
• Logistic: Chargers 52.9%
• XGBoost: Chargers 51.4%
• Bayesian: Vikings 63.0% (most confident)
• Ensemble: Vikings 57.4%

The ensemble predicts Minnesota 24, Los Angeles 22—a predicted margin of just 1.3 points. Three models see different winners, and confidence levels are scattered. Given what we learned about Thursday night games in Week 7 (hello, Steelers-Bengals debacle), approach with extreme caution.

2. NYJ @ CIN: The Crosstown Disagreement

Prediction Spread: 41.4%

Now things get interesting. The models split three ways:

• ELO: Bengals 75.1% (strong home favorite)
• Logistic: Bengals 60.8%
• XGBoost: Jets 65.7% (the contrarian!)
• Bayesian: Bengals 50.7% (barely)
• Ensemble: Bengals 58.5%

XGBoost stands alone, boldly picking the road underdog while everyone else leans toward Cincinnati. The ensemble predicts Bengals 22, Jets 18, but that confidence level (58.5%) suggests significant uncertainty.

1. CHI @ BAL: THE WAR

Prediction Spread: 55.4% — The highest of the entire 2025 season

Ladies and gentlemen, we have found the chaos game to end all chaos games.

ELO: Ravens 70.5% — “Baltimore crushes at home” Logistic Regression: Bears 83.5% — “Chicago dominates this matchup” XGBoost: Bears 51.0% — “Slight Chicago edge” Bayesian: Ravens 71.9% — “Baltimore’s the play” Ensemble: Bears 58.5% — “We’re going with Chicago, but…”

This is a 55.4% spread between the highest and lowest home team probability. For perspective, Week 7’s wildest disagreement (PIT @ CIN) was only 40.2%, and we saw how that ended—in a 64-point thriller that broke every prediction.

The models are split 3-2 in favor of the Bears, with the ensemble predicting Chicago 22, Baltimore 24 (yes, it predicts the Bears to win while showing a Baltimore score advantage—highlighting the uncertainty). The predicted margin is just 1.8 points.

Why the chaos?

• Bears are 5-2 with a surprising offense
• Ravens are a home favorite with defensive questions
• Recent head-to-head history is mixed
• The Logistic model sees something in Chicago’s metrics that ELO and Bayesian completely miss

This is the game to watch. If you want predictable, stick with Colts over Titans. If you want drama, controversy, and the potential for models to be spectacularly right or wrong, this is your matchup.

The Nail-Biters: Five Games Under 2 Points

Week 8 features five predicted squeakers:

1. MIA @ ATL: 1.2 point margin (Falcons 68.5% confident)
2. MIN @ LAC: 1.3 point margin (Vikings 57.4%)
3. NYG @ PHI: 1.5 point margin (Eagles 81.9% — confidence despite closeness!)
4. CHI @ BAL: 1.8 point margin (Bears 58.5%)
5. BUF @ CAR: 1.8 point margin (Bills 58.8%)

The Eagles paradox is fascinating: predicted to win by just 1.5 points, yet the models have 81.9% confidence. This happens when every model sees a close game but all agree on the same winner. Small margin, high certainty.

The Buffalo-Carolina game tells a similar story—tight predicted score, but decent confidence the Bills pull it out.

Scoring Predictions: Shootouts and Slugfests

Highest Scoring Games:

• WAS @ KC: 55.3 total points (31-25 Chiefs win)
• GB @ PIT: 53.3 total points (28-25 Steelers)
• SF @ HOU: 47.2 total points (25-22 Texans)

The Washington-Kansas City Monday night game is projected as the week’s offensive showcase. Both teams have explosive offenses, and the models expect fireworks in Arrowhead.

Lowest Scoring Games:

• TEN @ IND: 40.2 total points (26-14 Colts)
• NYJ @ CIN: 40.4 total points (22-18 Bengals)
• NYG @ PHI: 44.1 total points (23-21 Eagles)

The Titans-Colts slam dunk is also expected to be a relatively defensive affair. Tennessee’s struggling offense meets Indianapolis’ solid defense, resulting in the week’s lowest projected total.

Model Personalities: Week 8 Edition

After eight weeks, each model’s character is crystallizing:

Logistic Regression: The Bold Extremist

• Most confident on TEN @ IND (97.2% for Colts)
• Takes strong stance on CHI @ BAL (83.5% Bears)
• Extreme on WAS @ KC (84.5% Chiefs)
• Either brilliantly contrarian or dangerously overconfident—Week 7 was mixed (went 11/15)

ELO: The Steady Traditionalist

• Won Week 7 with 12/15 accuracy
• Respects home field advantage (8 of 10 consensus picks are home teams)
• Most conservative on close games (MIN @ LAC just 51%)
• The model to trust when you want fundamentals

Bayesian: The Uncertain Philosopher

• Lowest Week 7 accuracy (9/15) but highest honesty about uncertainty
• Strong conviction on CHI @ BAL (71.9% Ravens)—opposite of Logistic
• When Bayesian disagrees with Logistic, sparks fly

XGBoost: The Inconsistent Talent

• The lone wolf on NYJ @ CIN (picks Jets while everyone else goes Bengals)
• Pattern-seeking can lead to both insights and over-fitting
• 10/15 in Week 7—middle of the pack

Ensemble: The Diplomat

• Averages the chaos into reasonable predictions
• 11/15 in Week 7 (tied with Logistic)
• Tends to moderate extreme positions but misses when contrarians are right

Complete Week 8 Predictions

Here’s the full breakdown of how each model sees every matchup. Win probabilities shown for the favorite in each game:

Key Observations:

• 10 games with complete model consensus (highlighted in ensemble column)
• CHI @ BAL (highlighted row) has the season’s widest prediction spread
• Logistic’s extreme confidence on TEN @ IND (97.2%) and CHI @ BAL (83.5%)
• Only 3 disagreement games this week—a sign of clarity or false confidence?

What This Week Tells Us

Consensus doesn’t mean certainty. Yes, ten games have model agreement. But Week 7 taught us that even 87% confidence can be wrong. Consensus is a signal, not a guarantee.

Watch the disagreement games. CHI @ BAL is this season’s most divisive matchup. That level of model conflict usually means something interesting—either massive opportunity or massive uncertainty.

Home field is king. Eight of ten consensus picks are home teams. In close matchups, the models respect playing at home.

Logistic is feeling bold. After going 11/15 in Week 7 despite extreme positions, the Logistic model is doubling down with 97.2% on the Colts and 83.5% on the Bears. It’s either on fire or heading for a fall.

Thursday nights remain wild cards. MIN @ LAC has modest disagreement, but given what we learned about Thursday chaos in Week 7, proceed with caution.

The Picks

Lock of the Week:

• TEN @ IND: Colts 92.1% — As close to a sure thing as Week 8 offers

High Confidence Consensus (75%+):

• WAS @ KC: Chiefs 82.9%
• NYG @ PHI: Eagles 81.9%
• CLE @ NE: Patriots 80.3%
• SF @ HOU: Texans 75.8%

The Chaos Game:

• CHI @ BAL: Bears 58.5% — 55.4% prediction spread. Could go either way. Pure chaos.

Contrarian Play:

• NYJ @ CIN: XGBoost boldly picks Jets while everyone else says Bengals. If you’re fading the consensus, this is your game.

Check back after Week 8 for results analysis to see which models emerged victorious—and whether the Bears-Ravens chaos delivered on its promise.

Predictions generated using ELO ratings, Logistic Regression, XGBoost, Bayesian modeling, and Ensemble methods. Data as of October 22, 2025.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. All predictions are based on statistical models and historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not betting, gambling, or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.