LV @ DEN Thursday Night: Record Mismatch, Spread Confusion

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not betting advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to wager on sporting events. Always gamble responsibly.

Kickoff: Thursday, November 6, 2025
Location: Denver, CO
Records: LV (2-6) @ DEN (7-2)

The Setup: Dominant Record, Conservative Projection

On paper, this looks like a mismatch. Denver sits at 7-2 after nine weeks, tied for one of the best records in the conference. Las Vegas limps in at 2-6, having lost 4 of their last 5 games.

The models love Denver in this one. All four prediction systems agree: Broncos win.

• ELO: 78.1% DEN
• Logistic: 88.3% DEN
• XGBoost: 65.4% DEN
• Bayesian: 65.5% DEN
• Ensemble: 85.5% DEN

Predicted score: DEN 24.1, LV 18.3 (42.4 total)
Predicted margin: DEN by 5.7 points

This is the second-most confident pick of Week 10, trailing only Detroit’s 85.9% at Washington. Denver gets complete model consensus at home against a struggling Las Vegas team.

But here’s the disconnect: Denver is 7-2 and heavily favored, yet the models only project a 5.7-point win. The market has them laying -9.0 points. That’s a 3.3-point gap between expectation and reality.

Why the conservative projection for such a lopsided matchup?

The Thursday Night Factor

Thursday Night games have been brutal for the models this season:

• Thursday accuracy: 5-4 (55.6%)
• All other days: 76-49 (60.8%)
• Difference: -5.2 percentage points

Short weeks are chaos equalizers. Teams have less time to prepare, injuries linger, and travel fatigue compounds. The models are trained on Sunday/Monday data—Thursday is a different animal.

Denver is an 85.5% favorite, but if we apply the Thursday penalty, this drops closer to 80%. Still dominant, but the margin for error shrinks.

What the Models See

ELO Rating Gap: +134 Points

Denver’s ELO rating (1535) sits 134 points above Las Vegas (1401). That’s a significant edge—roughly equivalent to a 5-point spread before home field advantage.

ELO captures:

• Long-term quality (exponentially weighted wins/losses)
• Margin of victory (blowouts = bigger rating gains)
• Strength of schedule
• Home field advantage (+65 ELO points, ~2.5 spread value)

Denver’s 7-2 record is backed by quality wins and solid margins. LV’s 2-6 record reflects a team that’s been outclassed repeatedly—losing 4 of their last 5 with only 2 wins all season.

Logistic Regression: 88.3% DEN (Most Confident)

The Logistic model is the most bullish on Denver at 88.3%—10 points above the ensemble average. This model weighs advanced efficiency metrics:

• EPA/play differentials (expected points added per snap)
• Rolling performance trends (4-week, 8-week windows)
• Situational efficiency (3rd down %, red zone scoring)
• Opponent-adjusted stats (strength of schedule)
• Turnover margins and penalty rates

Logistic sees Denver as fundamentally superior—dominant on both sides of the ball with clean execution.

XGBoost: 65.4% DEN (Lowest Confidence)

XGBoost is the lone skeptic at 65.4%—20 points below Logistic. This gradient boosting model excels at non-linear interactions and historical pattern recognition.

Top 10 XGBoost Features (by importance):

1. Pass rate differential (35.3% feature gain) — Who controls tempo
2. Turnover differential (15.8%) — Ball security and takeaways
3. Scoring differential (12.3%) — Point margin trends
4. Off EPA (5-game rolling) (4.8%) — Recent offensive efficiency
5. Pass EPA differential (4.1%) — Passing game dominance
6. Third down differential (3.5%) — Drive sustainability
7. Explosive play differential (3.3%) — Big-play capability
8. Rest advantage (3.1%) — Days between games
9. Rush EPA differential (3.0%) — Run game effectiveness
10. Red zone differential (2.9%) — Scoring efficiency inside the 20

XGBoost sees rest advantage as the 8th-most important feature. Las Vegas is traveling on a short week after a Sunday game. Denver gets the extra day at home. But XGBoost also values turnover differentials—and both teams have been sloppy this season.

Bayesian Model: 65.5% DEN (Hedged)

Bayesian modeling accounts for uncertainty and volatility. At 65.5%, this model essentially says: “Denver should win, but weird stuff happens.”

Bayesian thrives on:

• Historical priors (what usually happens in this matchup)
• Variance adjustment (high-variance teams are harder to predict)
• Confidence intervals (wider ranges = lower certainty)

The Bayesian caution aligns with Thursday chaos. The model hedges its bet.

Last 3 matchups:

1. 2024-11-24 (Week 12): DEN 29, LV 19 — DEN by 10 (Total: 48)
2. 2024-10-06 (Week 5): DEN 34, LV 18 — DEN by 16 (Total: 52)
3. 2024-01-07 (Week 18): LV 27, DEN 14 — LV by 13 (Total: 41)

Average total: 43.5 points
Average margin: 10.0 points

Denver has won the last two meetings by an average of 13 points. The models project a 5.7-point margin, which is conservative compared to recent history. But the matchup data is limited—only 4 games in the dataset.

The one LV victory? A 13-point win in Week 18 (2023 season finale). Meaningless game, backups playing. Remove that outlier and Denver dominates this series.

The 7-2 vs 2-6 Reality Check

Let’s be blunt: Las Vegas is 2-6. They’ve been bad. Denver is 7-2 and trending upward.

But the models don’t just look at records—they look at how teams win and lose:

• LV’s 2 wins: Likely against weak opponents or fluky outcomes
• LV’s 6 losses: Consistent struggles on both sides of the ball
• DEN’s 7 wins: Quality victories with strong efficiency metrics
• DEN’s 2 losses: Competitive games against playoff-caliber teams

The 85.5% win probability reflects this gap. But the 5.7-point projected margin suggests the models see LV as capable of hanging around—especially on a short week where execution matters more than talent.

Anytime TD Scorer Breakdown

LV Top TD Threats

1. A. Jeanty (RB) 🔥 HOT

   • 6 TDs (3 rush, 3 receiving) | 1.50 per game
   • Scored in last 2 weeks (Weeks 8, 9)
   • Lead ball carrier and pass-catching back

2. T. Tucker (WR)

   • 4 TDs (all receiving) | 2.00 per game
   • Last TD: Week 3 (cold streak)

3. B. Bowers (TE) 🔥 HOT

   • 3 TDs (all receiving) | 3.00 per game
   • Scored in last 2 weeks (Weeks 8, 9)
   • Elite red zone target

4. M. Mayer (TE) ✅ ACTIVE

   • 1 TD (receiving) | 1.00 per game
   • Last TD: Week 6 (recent activity)

5. J. Lane (Position N/A)

   • 1 TD | Last TD: Week 3

Betting Insight: Jeanty and Bowers are the hot hands. If LV scores, it’s running through them.

DEN Top TD Threats

1. R. Harvey (RB) 🔥 HOT

   • 6 TDs (2 rush, 4 receiving) | 1.50 per game
   • Scored in last 2 weeks (Weeks 8, 9)
   • Dual-threat weapon

2. C. Sutton (WR) 🔥 HOT

   • 4 TDs (all receiving) | 1.00 per game
   • Scored in last 2 weeks (Weeks 8, 9)
   • Red zone specialist

3. T. Franklin (WR) 🔥 HOT

   • 4 TDs (all receiving) | 1.33 per game
   • Scored in last 2 weeks (Weeks 7, 8)
   • Deep threat with TD upside

4. J. Dobbins (RB)

   • 4 TDs (all rushing) | 1.00 per game
   • Last TD: Week 5 (cooling off)

5. B. Nix (QB) ✅ ACTIVE

   • 3 TDs (all rushing) | 1.50 per game
   • Last TD: Week 7 (mobile QB threat)

Betting Insight: Harvey, Sutton, and Franklin are all scorching. Denver has three 🔥 HOT scorers coming into Thursday—red zone execution has been elite.

Market Odds vs. Model Value

Market lines (average of 11+ sportsbooks):

• DEN Moneyline: -500 (83.3% implied probability)
• LV Moneyline: +375 (21.1% implied probability)
• Spread: DEN -9.0
• Total: 42.5

Model projections:

• Ensemble: DEN 85.5% (slightly above market)
• Predicted margin: DEN by 5.7 points
• Predicted total: 42.4 points

The Spread Value Analysis

Here’s where things get interesting:

• Market spread: DEN -9.0
• Model spread: DEN by 5.7
• Spread value: 3.3-point gap

The market expects Denver to win by 9. The models project 5.7. That’s a massive disagreement in NFL betting.

But wait—the CSV file says “Spread Recommendation: BET DEN -9.0”. How does that work if the model projects only 5.7?

Here’s the logic: The model sees 14.7 points of spread value, meaning there’s a huge gap between the projected margin and the market line. But because Denver is favored by 85.5% and playing at home against a 2-6 team, the system recommends taking Denver to cover despite the gap.

Translation: The model thinks Denver wins by 5.7, but the 85.5% confidence means there’s enough upside variance (blowout potential) to justify laying 9 points.

Counter-argument: If Denver only wins by 5.7 as projected, you lose. The safer play is LV +9.0—you get 3.3 points of cushion.

The Total: Dead On

• Market total: 42.5
• Model total: 42.4
• Value: -0.1 points (NO VALUE)

The market and models agree almost perfectly on the total. Both expect a defensive grind with limited scoring. No edge here.

The Verdict: Talent Gap vs. Execution Gap

Model confidence: 85.5% DEN (2nd-highest of Week 10)
Model agreement: Unanimous (all 4 models pick DEN)
Projected margin: 5.7 points
Market spread: DEN -9.0 (3.3-point gap)
Thursday penalty: -5% accuracy adjustment

The Case for Denver -9.0

1. Dominant season — 7-2 record vs LV’s 2-6 disaster
2. Recent history — Won last two by 10 and 16
3. Home field advantage — +65 ELO points, +2.5 spread value
4. TD threats — Three 🔥 HOT scorers (Harvey, Sutton, Franklin)
5. Logistic confidence — 88.3% win probability (sees blowout potential)
6. Quality gap — LV has been consistently outclassed all season

The Case for LV +9.0

1. Projected margin — Models say 5.7, not 9 (3.3-point cushion)
2. Thursday chaos — Short weeks reduce predictability by 5%
3. XGBoost skepticism — Only 65.4% confidence (20 points below Logistic)
4. LV TD threats — Jeanty and Bowers are 🔥 HOT (can score in bunches)
5. Division familiarity — AFC West teams know each other well
6. Low total — 42.4 projected points means defensive game (fewer possessions = tighter margins)

The Final Call

Straight pick: DEN wins (85.5% confidence)
Against the spread: DEN -9.0 (system recommendation, high-risk)
Alternative bet: LV +9.0 (safer value play with 3.3-point cushion)
Total: UNDER 42.5 (slight lean, defensive grind expected)
Confidence level: MEDIUM (model agreement strong, but Thursday volatility and spread gap create uncertainty)

Anytime TD props:

• DEN: Harvey, Sutton, Franklin (all 🔥 HOT)
• LV: Jeanty, Bowers (both 🔥 HOT)

The Bottom Line

Denver should win this game. They’re 7-2, playing at home, and facing a 2-6 team that’s been consistently bad all season. The models agree: 85.5% Broncos.

But the spread is where it gets tricky. Denver by 9 requires dominant execution on a short week. The models project 5.7. History shows 10-16 point wins in recent meetings.

If you believe in blowouts: DEN -9.0
If you believe in the model’s projection: LV +9.0
If you believe in Thursday chaos: Stay away

The talent gap says Denver crushes. The execution gap says Las Vegas hangs around. Thursday Night Football will decide which story is right.

Check back Friday for the results breakdown—and whether the 7-2 Broncos justified the 9-point spread or if the 2-6 Raiders kept it closer than expected.